Happenstance rather than strategy is behind Trump’s success
From across the ocean that connects Australia and the United States, I am an avid follower of US politics. In the lead up to the US Presidential election next month, the question which regularly reverberates through my mind is: Why is this election so close, at least according to the polls?
Putting aside the fact that Trump has been impeached twice, proved to lie at a rapid rate of knots, found guilty on 34 felonies, and also found liable for sexual abuse, political pundits talk about him being a ‘threat to democracy’. The concern is that via stacking the Supreme Court and then undermining those institutions essential for the maintenance of a functioning democracy such as the media, the education system and the justice system, as well as not accepting the outcome of a free and fair election, Trump has already started to unravel the underpinnings of democracy.
In order to do this, however, Trump would need to comprehend what underpins democracy; it would require him to have a deep and nuanced understanding of the ‘inner workings’ of democracy, in order to then be able to dismantle it.
But this is giving him way too much credit.
Let’s face it – the man is an ignorant buffoon, who has been shown to speak at the level of fourth grader and has no inclination to read and learn to broaden his very narrow horizons. The likelihood that he has any kind of sophisticated understanding of the philosophical underpinnings of democracy and/or the US Constitution, is therefore highly improbable.
Trump is undisciplined and reactive, we have seen this when he goes off-teleprompter at rallies and does “the weave” or during presidential debates. For better or worse, he runs primarily on instinct. Instinct arises from our limbic system – the oldest, and least evolved, part of our brain. The primary function the limbic system is personal survival. Very little, if any, of Trump’s observable behaviours are driven by his neocortex – the more ‘modern’ part of our brain, that is responsible for the development of language, decision making, imagination, executive functioning and reasoning.
Given his underperforming neocortex, Trump’s popularity, and dare I say it, success, are products of happenstance, rather than a carefully thought-out political strategy. It turns out, more by good fortune than by good planning, that he just so happens to be the right person at the right time – given the current zeitgeist.
A downward escalator of xenophobia
From the moment, on 16th June 2015, he came down that gold escalator at Trump Tower to launch his 2016 presidential campaign, Trump’s political ideology has been constructed around a single consistent thread – xenophobia. From ‘building the wall’, to the Muslim ban as one of his initial policies, to the reversal of women’s reproductive rights, the politicisation of the rights and issues faced by LGBTQIA+ communities, to saying there were “very fine people on both sides” in the aftermath of a neo-Nazi march in Charlottesville, VA, the mocking of a New York Times reporter with a disability, and to the racist comments that can no longer be categorised as ‘veiled’, Trump’s vilification, indeed demonisation, of any person or group he sees as ‘the other’, or deems to be inferior to himself, has been the stable fodder he has cast out to his base.
The cultural wound that Trump reveals
Yet, Trump is the ‘right person at the right time’ because he continually shines a light on a cultural wound, that up till now, the US has not been able to fully resolve and heal. In doing so, he polarises, but also engages, the nation, as some refute that this wound even exists, whilst for others, he represents a painful reminder of an anguish that is yet to be reconciled – historically, culturally, and within themselves.
This is the cultural wound that originated as a result of slavery and the country’s ensuing history of racism, but more broadly, a tendency to create ‘hierarchies of value’ based on the extent to which we perceive people to be ‘one of us’ or ‘the other’. America’s history of racism continues to ripple forward and land on the shores of the present. And while there are many, including those in Black community, who deny its very existence, objective statistics paint a different story.
According to data from the Census Bureau, homeownership in the US varies significantly by race and ethnicity. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the homeownership rate among non-Hispanic White Americans was 73.8%, followed by Asian Americans (63%), Hispanic Americans (49.8%), and Black Americans (45.9%).1
In 2023, the median income for White households in the US was $89,050, in comparison to Native American households being $57,270 and Black households $56,490.2
The percent of Black Americans in the general US population in 2023 was 13%, yet 37% of people in prison or jail are Black. And the arrest rate for Black vs White Americans was 6,109 vs. 2,795 per 100,000.3
And although all groups saw gains in postsecondary education degree attainment, Asian (66.5 percent) and White (52.9 percent) adults are much more likely than Black or African American (39.0 percent), American Indian or Alaska Native (32.2 percent), and Hispanic or Latino (29.5 percent) adults to attain an associate degree or higher.4
These inequities demonstrate that racism has been embedded and then normalised throughout the structures of society, and within institutions, such as education, law, and the media. This is indicative of ‘structural racism’ and suggests that its foundational elements are more systemic than they are personal.
Crucially, it should be noted that we will have a tendency to explain or justify these inequities via some deficiency or defectiveness that we associate to a particular race. For example: “Oh, that is just because Black people are not as…”. The danger is that these narratives are both founded upon, as well as perpetuate, negative stereotypes and tropes, that in themselves are emblematic of racism.
Surely, if this cultural wound had been healed, the disparities in these statistics would not be so vast! This is because the broader culture would be able to cultivate a society where there is equity in an individual’s opportunity to build a life of success, happiness, freedom, and health, regardless of their race. Furthermore, in the absence of this cultural wound, there is no way that Trump would have the political fuel – a high-octane combination of xenophobia, victimhood, and territorialism – that would have sustained his popularity with almost half the country, for such an extended period. For this is a wound that ‘belongs’ to everyone, irrespective of our race. We just have different ways of reacting every time that wound gets poked, prodded, or aggravated – some of us get defensive, some of us become territorial, others of us feel like victims or become hopeless, and many, many of us get angry.
And obviously, the US has not got sole ownership of a wound of this nature. Here in Australia, there is a similar cultural wound, where we are yet to come to terms with, and to fully reconcile, our history of colonisation and the subsequent treatment of our First Nations people.
Organisations have their own version of ‘cultural wounds’
These cultural wounds do not only belong to the US (as well as other countries) as part of their current political climate. Most organisations will have their own versions of cultural wounds. Challenging or traumatic events from the past, that have never been fully resolved, sit like ‘ghosts in the walls’ of organisations, where their presence is barely felt, yet they are able to exert an inimitable influence on the culture and performance of the organisation.
A violent incident in the workplace; the departure of a long-term and beloved leader; a sporting team radically underperforming throughout a season or in a crucial game; or a workplace investigation for misconduct, poor behaviour, or discrimination, are all examples of ‘one-off’ events that are likely to result in a cultural wound. However, cultural wounds also get created when there is an accumulation of hurt, misunderstanding, underappreciation, and mistrust over an extended period of time. These ‘micro events’ will be less obvious than those ‘one-off’ events but will often result in deeper and more long-lasting wounds. This is because we tend to minimise the impact of an accumulation of these smaller events, and the gradual erosive effect they have on the culture of an organisation or team.
These cultural wounds will invariably impact performance – they undermine trust, reduce engagement, weaken connection, render providing constructive feedback ineffective, and create barriers to collaboration. They make innovation and creativity improbable, because after all, when we are already feeling wounded, who wants to take the risk of doing something innovative, where the chances of failure, and further hurt, might be high.
Often these wounds will become more apparent during times of heightened pressure, or at critical moments in the performance cycle. This is because in these times of increased demand, where the difference between optimal performance and defeat is minuscule, is when organisations and teams need a culture that is as free from these wounds as possible. So, the presence of these wounds, which previously may have been latent, ‘suddenly’ become obvious as their impact on organisational performance becomes manifest.
Sunlight is the best disinfectant…
Trump’s whole shtick, for many of us, constellates a combination of disbelief, anger, frustration, grief and confusion. Yet, he is also shining a light on a cultural wound that is yet to be healed.
If sunlight is indeed the best disinfectant, the collective challenge for all of us, including those of us not living in the US, is to ascertain what is the disinfectant that needs to be applied to the cultural wounds inadvertently revealed by the light that Trump shines?
The first ‘application’ of disinfectant needs to be an acknowledgement that these wounds even exist. James Baldwin said: “Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced.”
Once their existence is acknowledged, we can then ascertain the kind of ‘disinfectant’ that is needed. Most frequently, this will require each of us, individually and collectively, to build our cultural capability. This capability will come in many forms, for there are many kinds of disinfectant. But having the commitment to step out of our comfort zones in order to get better at having difficult conversations; supporting, but also holding people accountable for unwanted behaviours; understanding the impacts and dynamics of structural discrimination; cultivating psychological safety; and leading in ways which are trauma informed; will all, over time, support the healing process.
Ultimately, however, healing requires care, tenderness, compassion, and dare I say it – love. But ‘love’ isn’t always polite, quiet, and compromising. Sometimes love needs to be tough; to be immovable; and to be unrelenting in naming and standing against those forces that seek to divide us and hurt us.
[1] https://eyeonhousing.org/2024/02/homeownership-rates-by-race-and-ethnicity
[2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/233324/median-household-income-in-the-united-states-by-race-or-ethnic-group/
[3] https://www.prisonpolicy.org/research/race_and_ethnicity/
[4] https://www.equityinhighered.org/indicators/u-s-population-trends-and-educational-attainment/educational-attainment-by-race-and-ethnicity/